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My work mostly focuses on the political economy of elections and electoral systems, although I'm usually interested in anything with interesting data.  Here's a simple list of my working papers, publications and and on-going projects.  Visit my research blog for a better idea of what I'm working on. 


Working Papers

  • Dynamic and Strategic Coalition Termination.  With Jochen Rehmert and Petra Schleiter.  APSA 2017.
  • Luxury Good Policy Positions and Electoral Accountability for the Economy.  With Tarik Abou-Chadi.  EPSA June 2017.
  • The Long Shadow of the Opposition:  The Persistence of Economic Failure on Electoral Fortunes.  With Liam McGrath.  EPSA. June 2017.
  • Coalition Inclusion Probabilities: A dynamic measure of electoral leverage.  With Matthias Orlowski and Jochen Rehmert.  MPSA. April 2017.
  • The Luxury Goods Vote: Why Left Governments are Punished More for Economic Downturns. With Cassandra Grafstrom. Working Paper. October 2016. :: RG :: pdf :: appendix.
  • The Media, the Economy and the Vote.  With Michael Peress.  Working Paper.  Sept 2015. :: pdf.

Journal Articles

  • A Lšnder-based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election.  With Arndt Leininger.  PS: Political Science & Politics 50(3):689-692. July 2017. (March forecast). doi: 10.1017/S1049096517000427  :: original :: corrected :: data
  • A Lšnderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017.  With Arndt Leininger.  Politische Vierteljahresscrift 58(3). 2017. :: pdf :: ard :: faz :: data
  • It's not easy being green: Why voters punish parties for environmental policies during downturns.  With Tarik Abou Chadi.  Electoral Studies. 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.10.009 :: pdf 
  • Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy. With Christian Houle and Jun Xiang. International Organization 70(4): 687-726. 2016. doi: 10.1017/S002081831600028X :: pdf ::  appendix  :: data
  • A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election. With Arndt Leininger. German Politics 25(1):106-130. 2016. doi: 10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531 :: pdf :: data
  • Vintage Errors: Do Real-Time Economic Data Improve Election Forecasts? With Arndt Leininger. Research & Politics, July-September: 1-11. 2015. doi: 10.1177/2053168015589624 :: pdf :: data 
  • A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness. With Rene Lindstaedt. Political Analysis 23(2): 242-253. 2015. doi: 10.1093/pan/mpv001 :: pdf :: appendix :: data
  • Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison. With Michael Peress. American Political Science Review 106(3): 661-84. 2012. :: pdf :: data
    • Winner of the GESIS Klingemann Prize for the Best CSES Scholarship.
  • Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote. With Christopher Wlezien. European Journal of Political Research 50(3):365-94. 2011.  :: pdf :: data
    • Winner of Best Paper Award, APSA section on European Politics & Society.
  • Counting Calories: Democracy and Distribution in the Developing World. With Lisa Blaydes. International studies Quarterly 55(4). 2011. :: pdf :: data
  • Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice. American Journal of Political Science 53(4): 950-70. 2009. :: pdf
  • Electoral Systems and Real Prices: Panel Evidence for the OECD Countries 1970-2000. With Eric C.C. Chang and Ronald Rogowski. British Journal of Political Science 38(4): 739-51. 2008. ::  pdf
  • How Domestic Is Domestic Politics? Globalization and Elections. Annual Review of Political Science 10: 341-62. 2007. :: pdf
  • Trade and the Timing of Elections. British Journal of Political Science 36(3): 437-57. 2006. :: pdf :: data
  • Who Surfs, Who Manipulates? The Determinants of Opportunistic Election Timing and Electorally Motivated Economic Intervention. American Political Science Review 99(1): 17-28. 2005. :: pdf
  • Majoritarian Electoral Systems and Consumer Power: Price-Level Evidence from the OECD Countries. With Ronald Rogowski. American Journal of Political Science 46(3): 526-39. 2002. :: pdf :: data


Electoral Systems and the Balance of Consumer-Producer Power
. With Eric C.C. Chang, Drew Linzerand Ronald Rogowski. Cambridge University Press, 2011.

Investigates the effects of electoral systems on the relative influence of various interests within society. Rogowski & Kayser’s (2002) extension of the classic Stigler-Peltzman model of regulation to include explicit electoral institutions implies that majoritarian electoral arrangements should empower consumers relative to producers. This manuscript, employing real price levels as a proxy for consumer power, rigorously establishes this proposition over time, within the OECD, and across a large sample of developing countries. Majoritarian electoral arrangements depress real prices by approximately ten percent, all else equal. Additional theoretical implications about institutional reform and electoral competitiveness are also developed. :: more

Book Chapters

  • The Buck Stops over There? Globalization and Electoral Accountability. With Michael Peress. Chapter 5 in Globalization and Domestic Politics. Jack Vowles & Georgios Xezonakis, eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press. CSES series. 2016. :: pdf
  • The Elusive Economic Vote.  Chapter 7 in Comparing Democracies 4: Elections and Voting in a Changing World. Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Norris, eds. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. 2014. :: pdf
  • Introducing a New Generation of Governance Indicators. With Helmut Anheier and Piero Stanig. In The Governance Report 2013. Hertie School of Governance, ed. Chapter 5, pp. 117-148. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2013. :: pdf
  • Governance Indicators: Some Proposals. With Piero Stanig. Chapter 9 in Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance. Helmut K. Anheier and Regina A. List, pp. 189-220. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2013. :: pdf

Work in Progress

  • Preprocessing the News: Relative Economic Performance, Media Reporting and the Vote. With Michael Peress.
  • The Media is the Mechanism: How Voters Learn about the Economy.  With Michael Peress.
  • Partisan Economic News: A Cross-National Automated Content Analysis.  With Michael Peress.


  • Conflict by Design: Domestic Institutions and Internatinal Conflict. With Taehee Whang. 2009. :: pdf
  • How Geographic Concentration Affects Industrial Influence: Evidence from US Data. 1999. With Ronald Rogowski and Daniel Kotin. :: pdf